CSIS's Victor Cha: 'Possible Kim Jong-un meeting with Trump in November'

Victor Cha, a Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzed that North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un is likely to push for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump following the U.S. midterm elections in November. Cha stated that Chairman Kim’s foreign policy stance aims to change the status quo rather than maintain it, projecting that North Korea will seize opportunities in resuming dialogue with the Trump administration, just as it did with its military cooperation with Russia.

Cha assessed that Chairman Kim is likely to leverage President Trump's interest in a Nobel Peace Prize to bypass detailed denuclearization negotiations. Instead, he predicted North Korea would pursue de facto nuclear-armed status by putting issues such as a peace treaty, the suspension of ROK-U.S. joint military exercises, and the end of hostilities between the U.S. and North Korea on the agenda. He also noted that North Korea may attempt to improve relations with Japan alongside the U.S., adopting a strategy to isolate South Korea.

He pointed out that while such diplomatic shifts could create a superficial easing of tensions, they would not offer fundamental solutions like denuclearization or peace. In this scenario, concerns are rising over ripple effects that would complicate coordination and response within the ROK-U.S. alliance and destabilize the security order in Northeast Asia by emphasizing only diplomatic achievements without substantial denuclearization from North Korea.