President Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Hits First 'Dead Cross' at 46% Negative: Impact of Retreating Real Estate Pledges

Analysis of Direct Causes Behind the Approval Rating Dead Cross

According to a Gallup poll, President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has recorded a so-called 'dead cross' phenomenon for the first time since taking office, with negative assessments overtaking positive ones. Positive ratings fell to 44%, setting a new low, while negative ratings soared to 46%. This serves as a clear numerical indicator that the momentum of the early administration, which enjoyed high support initially, has been broken. Political circles largely attribute the core background of this decline to dissatisfaction with real estate policies and the retreat of previous pledges.

Rep. Song Young-gil clearly diagnosed the cause of the President's declining approval as the failure of real estate measures and the retreat of pledges. In particular, the President's recent expression of a negative stance on the effects of housing supply through reconstruction drew backlash from the market. For voters facing the realistic economic burden of skyrocketing housing prices in the metropolitan area, the government's supply policy has been a major disappointment. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon also recently launched a stinging criticism of the government's real estate policy, arguing that it only raises jeonse (long-term lease) and monthly rent prices without controlling housing prices. This is interpreted as a political signal signifying the visible alienation of the moderate electorate.

Diagnosis of Internal Party Division and Leadership Vacuum

The decline in approval ratings stems not only from external economic factors. Even within the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, signs of defection are being detected, and the cohesion of the core support base is loosening. Rep. Jeong Cheong-rae perceived the situation as one where expectations for a 'capable president' remain, but the hearts of the traditional core supporters have cooled. He claimed that if he were to become party leader, he could restore the President's approval rating to over 60%, strongly suggesting the necessity of a change in party leadership.

Public calls for accountability within the political sphere appear to be more about the next party leadership race than presenting solutions to overcome the crisis. This acts as a factor that increases internal confusion within the ruling party and policy uncertainty for voters.

The opposition People Power Party is also entangled in complex internal political dynamics rather than simply enjoying a reflective benefit. Senior lawmakers, including Rep. Park Deok-heum and Rep. Ju Ho-young, recently held successive golf meetings with President Lee. However, as the highly political issue of 'decentralization through term shortening' was intertwined at these gatherings, it is difficult to evaluate them merely as venues for simple communication. President Lee's remarks on constitutional amendment after term shortening, conveyed through Rep. Kim Tae-ho and Rep. Kang Hoon-sik, serve as a variable shaking up the landscape for the next presidential election. The fact that former People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won publicly mentioned that President Lee would not call her to play golf also highlights the subtle disconnect and invisible friction within the major ruling party.

Economic and Industrial Challenges to Reverse Approval Ratings

To reverse the decline in national approval ratings, the ruling party faces a moment where it must devote its full efforts to economic revitalization, the surest solution card. At a recent meeting on future growth engines presided over by the President at the Blue House, he emphasized the need to prepare seven cutting-edge technologies, following semiconductors, as the next generation of growth engines. This represents a macroeconomic strategy to secure new export drivers by moving away from an economic structure dependent on real estate.

However, the policy drive reflecting voices from the industrial field remains on trial. The process of garnering consent from the labor union on key economic issues, such as the semiconductor special extended work system and the 'Yellow Envelope' law, remains an absolute task. The President's instruction that ambiguous parts of the labor law amendment bill need to be clearly established through subordinate enforcement decrees is interpreted as a measure to reduce the regulatory burden on companies. Only the speed of creating a business-friendly environment and revitalizing the perceived economy may be able to turn around the downward curve of the waning approval ratings.