President Lee Jae-myung’s Approval Rating at 44%... Constitutional Amendment Debate Resumes with Term Shortening Card

As President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating for state affairs dropped to 44% in a Gallup Korea poll, discussions on constitutional amendment are moving to the center of the political stage after the President signaled his willingness to accept a shortening of his own term. Rep. Kim Tae-ho of the People Power Party (PPP) said on the 15th that "President Lee mentioned that we must pursue a decentralized constitutional amendment, even if it means shortening his term." A situation has emerged where the ruling and opposition parties play different hands regarding the single five-year term system established by the 1987 constitutional amendment.

The 'Self-Sacrifice Card' of Shortening the Term

President Lee has marked constitutional amendment as his top national task since the beginning of his administration. The direction under review is changing the presidential term to a four-year term eligible for re-election, and he has repeatedly stated his willingness to reduce his own term if necessary for the amendment. The presidential office has also joined in with supporting fire from the same line of thought.

"A four-year mid-term presidential system with expanded congressional authority has the highest public acceptance." — Presidential Office

There is a calculation underlying the series of remarks. The current single-term system has long been a target for revision due to the drawbacks of 'lame duck' periods, where policy momentum wanes in the latter half of the administration, and corruption scandals at the end of the term. The ruling camp’s logic is that a mid-term system, which opens the possibility of re-election, can reduce these structural problems. Offering to cut his own term is interpreted as a strategy to secure moral leverage in negotiations with the opposition.

Opposition’s Conditions: 'Decentralization' and 'No Re-election'

The PPP’s response is conditional. Rep. Kim Tae-ho demanded President Lee declare he would not pursue re-election, stating, "A constitutional amendment must be decentralized." The opposition’s logic is that adjusting only the term system without restructuring power distribution—dividing presidential authority with the National Assembly—effectively paves the way for the incumbent's re-election. The backlash from the hard-line faction is more direct. PPP Leader Jang Dong-hyeok visited the Olympic Park in Seoul’s Jamsil on the evening of the 15th, Liberation Day, and said, "I will block President Lee’s re-election constitutional amendment." Observations suggest this is a move to rally conservatives amid falling approval ratings and accelerate his grip on the party.

Contact between the ruling and opposition parties is becoming active. President Lee played golf with conservative opposition lawmakers in June and has continued meetings recently. The PPP criticized this on the 15th as a "trick to recruit pro-amendment lawmakers." The criticism is that they are talking on the surface but calculating votes on the inside.

44% Changes the Weight of the Negotiating Table

In Gallup Korea’s poll for the second week of August, President Lee’s approval rating was calculated at 44%. This is a drop of 7 percentage points from the previous poll, the lowest since taking office. A "dead cross" occurred quickly, where negative ratings overtook positive ones, with the departure of the 2030 generation being cited as the primary cause.

This figure works in two ways for the amendment negotiations. If the President had pushed for the amendment at his peak, the opposition would have had a significant pretext to refuse. However, by playing the term shortening card during a decline, the weight of the negotiation proposal itself may have lightened. Conversely, for the opposition, there is less incentive to join hands with a president whose popularity is falling. It is a structure where the interests of the ruling and opposition parties diverge as time passes.

Two Hurdles to Overcome

Procedural barriers are also high. A constitutional amendment must be passed by a majority of two-thirds or more of the National Assembly members and then approved in a national referendum to be confirmed. Without bipartisan agreement, it cannot pass the first stage.

Ultimately, reaching a conclusion depends on two things: how much power decentralization is combined with the revision of the term system, and how the possibility of the incumbent’s re-election is blocked. If President Lee agrees to a declaration against running for re-election, negotiations could open up quickly. If he rejects the declaration and sticks to the original mid-term plan, the opposition’s unity is likely to strengthen. If these two hurdles cannot be overcome, it is widely predicted that the constitutional amendment will inevitably be carried over to the next political term.