52% of Public Opposes Constitutional Amendment…Momentum Lost Amid Dropping Approval Ratings
Public opposition to a constitutional amendment for a four-year renewable term has surpassed 52%.
A Straight News opinion poll found that 52.1% of respondents opposed the amendment to allow a presidential four-year renewable term, outnumbering those in favor for the first time. While discussions of constitutional revision have consistently circulated in political circles, public sentiment appears to have cooled. The survey also revealed that President Lee Jae-myung’s positive approval rating fell to a post-inauguration low of 38.9%, dropping into the late 30% range for the first time—a key factor in interpreting the direction of public opinion on the amendment.
Falling Approval and Opposition to Amendment Not a Coincidence
The shift where opposition to the amendment constitutes a majority coincides with a decline in the Lee Jae-myung administration’s approval ratings. The four-year renewable term, proposed by the opposition and some civil society groups, effectively alters the term structure for the incumbent president. Typically, when suspicions arise that such constitutional changes are designed to favor the current officeholder, falling approval ratings tend to bolster opposition. Indeed, the positive assessment rating of 38.9% marks a significant drop from his early support base, with analysts pointing to the defection of centrist voters as a cause.
As is often the case in political leadership, when the binding force that unites supporters toward a single goal weakens, public consent for institutional changes also wavers. Given the weighty nature of redesigning the power structure, the President and the ruling party must first restore trust before they can secure the public’s signature.
New Ruling Party Leadership, A New Variable in Amendment Debate
The recent poll also included evaluations of the new ruling party leadership. Half of the public responded that the new leadership should cooperate with the President. The Democratic Party of Korea recently transitioned to a new leadership led by Representative Kim Min-seok following its national convention. President Lee met with Representative Kim and floor leader Han Byeong-do at the Blue House for over two hours, opening the door for party-government cooperation. If the leadership shuffle is perceived as a 'fresh start,' it could regain momentum for governing, but if internal conflicts surface, it could further fuel the decline in approval ratings.
Representative Kim engaged in a fierce battle with candidate Jeong Cheong-rae during the primary, and reports of backlash within the party over personnel appointments followed his victory. If the new leadership fails to heal these fractures, public judgment will be even harsher. The fact that half the public is calling for cooperation implies the converse: if such collaboration is not visible, that expectation could turn into a sense of betrayal.
Inevitability of Slowing Down Amendment Debate
The 52.1% opposition to the amendment is a significant figure sufficient to alter the political landscape, even without a general or presidential election. While both ruling and opposition parties have mentioned constitutional amendment in their platforms, the mega-political project of revising the Constitution cannot be pushed through without the consent of a majority of the citizenry. President Lee has also publicly mentioned the need to 'adjust the pace' regarding discussions on prosecutorial reform, signaling a trend toward aligning the reform agenda with public sentiment.
There are two key points to watch going forward: whether President Lee’s approval rating can rebound from the late 30%, and whether the Kim Min-seok leadership can manage party-government relations to build trust. If approval recovers and party-government relations stabilize, the door to amendment discussions may reopen. Conversely, if the current trend continues, the four-year renewable term amendment risks being pushed to the margins and drifting until the next political term. As no constitutional amendment can be completed without the public's assent, the figure of 52.1% serves as a direct answer handed to the political establishment.
