Oh Se-hun cleared on appeal, lifting threat to his mayoral post

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hun has lifted the threat of losing his office after being acquitted in an appeals court.

The Seoul Central District Court's appellate division overturned a first-instance ruling that had fined Oh 10 million won in the case over allegations of improperly outsourced opinion polls brokered by Myung Tae-kyun, and declared him not guilty. A fine of 1 million won or more, if upheld, would have cost him the mayoralty, making this ruling a decisive turning point for Oh's political career. The People Power Party had consistently voiced confidence in his innocence throughout the proceedings, insisting that "the first-instance verdict must be corrected," and the court's outcome played out exactly as the opposition had hoped.

The structure of the case and the meaning of the verdict

Oh had faced charges that, ahead of the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election, he commissioned opinion polls from political broker Myung Tae-kyun and had businessman Kim Han-jeong pay the 33 million won cost on his behalf. The core of the political funds law violation allegation was whether a third party had covered the polling costs. Oh denied the charges to the end, saying he "never commissioned polls from Myung" and that "the money Kim provided had nothing to do with me." With the appellate court accepting this argument, Oh has effectively escaped his legal risk. However, should prosecutors appeal, it would be premature to conclude that the judicial risk has entirely disappeared.

Expansion of the 'Oh faction' and the next presidential race

Oh's political moves are accelerating in the wake of the verdict. He is known to have held dinners on two consecutive days with lawmakers who visited the court following the acquittal. This is seen not merely as a gesture of thanks but as a signal flare for expanding his support base, known as the 'pro-Oh faction.' Oh previously ranked first in suitability polls of conservative-leaning presidential contenders. With his record of governing Seoul and expanded housing supply policies cited as his strengths, observers say that if the legal uncertainty is cleared, he could emerge as a genuinely competitive candidate in the next presidential race.

Yet structural challenges remain. The most prominent is the issue of 'Seoul housing prices,' widely seen as a burden Oh himself carries. He has argued that solutions to housing problems must come from expanded supply rather than taxes and regulations, and the trajectory of Seoul home prices is expected to be a key variable shaping Oh's presidential competitiveness. With President Lee Jae-myung warning of a real estate bubble by invoking Japan's example, policy competition between the ruling and opposition parties over housing supply is expected to intensify.

Political calendar and outlook

Oh's acquittal is also expected to reshape the pecking order within the People Power Party. Unlike the impeachment turmoil, when he declared he would not run for president, he has this time succeeded in his legal defense and secured an image of a completed political comeback. Given that his term as Seoul mayor remains, analysts say a strategy of converting his governing achievements into momentum for a presidential bid would be effective.

Meanwhile, the case itself is not over, depending on whether prosecutors appeal and how the Supreme Court proceedings unfold. Even if the acquittal is finalized, as long as the string of cases tied to Myung Tae-kyun continues to hang over the conservative camp, scrutiny of Oh's political trajectory will not entirely disappear. How sustainably he can convert the political momentum secured by the acquittal into durable support will determine the future value of the 'Oh Se-hun card.'