Warning that the administration could be at risk if moderates, the capital region, and young voters walk away
President Lee Jae-myung's positive job approval rating, based on Gallup Korea's combined figures, has fallen sharply from 66% in April to 38% in October, while negative assessments rose from 24% to 51% over the same period. In several polls released in late October, positive and negative responses were roughly even, or negatives led. On the surface, the slide in approval seems to have stopped, but the gap compared with April remains wide.
Gallup Korea releases its combined figures for each month in the last week of that month, and because the sample size increases, changes in public opinion by political leaning, region, and age group can be examined relatively accurately. In the October combined assessment, moderates showed negatives (51%) outweighing positives (39%). By region, only South Jeolla–Gwangju and North Jeolla posted high positive ratings, while all other regions showed predominantly negative assessments. By age group, only those in their 40s and 50s gave positive ratings, with all other age groups negative. The decline in job approval is attributed to the defection of moderates, the capital region, and young people—so-called "jung-su-cheong."
The president's personal background is cited as one clue. He was beaten at a factory and injured his arm in a press machine, leaving him disabled, and he also experienced his father tearing up his high school equivalency exam certificate.
Lack of political experience is also cited as a factor. The president's identity is closer to that of a technocrat, and technocrats, the argument goes, tend to seek to monopolize power. The governments of Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, and Moon Jae-in distributed power by appointing politicians as prime minister and chief of staff. President Lee did so early on as well, but his successors—Prime Minister Han Seong-sook and Chief of Staff Lim Kwang-hyun—are technocratic figures, cementing a structure in which the president alone bears the responsibility for governing and the political burden.
Pressure from his hardline support base is another factor driving him away from public sentiment. In Gallup's survey during the third week of July, 61% favored retaining prosecutors' supplementary investigation powers, with only 23% calling for their full abolition—yet the president chose full abolition. In a survey released on October 28 by the Korea Society Opinion Institute, opposition to impeaching Chief Justice Jo Hee-de stood at 50.3%, far ahead of the 32.0% in favor, yet the president and the Democratic Party have failed to distance themselves from the move. Even after controversy over discrimination and exclusion spread from his remarks about multicultural families, the president reiterated his stance that support for multicultural families is necessary but that there is no reason to justify specific flawed policies that produce reverse discrimination.
In Gallup's survey released on October 16, ahead of the April 2028 general election, 47% of respondents said more opposition candidates should be elected to check the current government, ahead of the 34% who backed the ruling party. The Democratic Party has won three consecutive general elections, taking 123 seats in 2016, 180 in 2020, and 175 in 2024. These figures show that whether the party wins back the hearts of moderates, the capital region, and young voters will be a key variable in its winning formula.
