Democrats Aim for 240 House Seats and Additional Senate Gains

Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analysis firm, projected that in the U.S. midterm elections (congressional elections held midway through a president's term) taking place on the 3rd, Democrats could win up to 240 seats in the House and add 2 to 6 seats in the Senate. The forecast reflects the view that the race has been turning against Republicans as economic and security concerns pile up, including the war with Iran and the resulting high oil prices and inflation.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House, ahead of the Democrats (45 Senate seats, 214 House seats), and this congressional advantage has been the foundation of the Trump administration's political clout during the first half of its second term.

Republican candidates, facing an uphill battle, have escalated personal attacks as the race enters its final stretch. According to the New York Times (NYT), Senator Roger Marshall, a Kansas Republican, made baseless claims that Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton engaged in child grooming; in Texas, the campaign of Republican candidate Ken Paxton has attacked his Democratic rival James Talarico as an 'oddball' obsessed with transgender children; and in Michigan, smears branding Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed a 'jihadist' have persisted since the early stages of the race. Former Republican Senator Jeff Flake said, "We have become increasingly rude, coarse and vulgar. This time it seems to have reached a new level."

President Trump has also mobilized his base, holding 26 campaign rallies across the country in October alone. He has campaigned actively not only in swing states but also in his own strongholds, remarking at a recent rally in Florida, "Doing this 28 days in a row is really tough. My voice is down to 49.2 percent." Former President Barack Obama has been campaigning in swing states such as Detroit, Michigan, and Cleveland, Ohio, criticizing the Trump administration's failures.