CA-15 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican Wins" at 39.0% on "CA-15 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.3%p from yesterday. $62 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican Wins
▲2.339%
PoliticsVol $62Total volume $143Liquidity $1.6Kin 16 days (Nov 3)
Current probability
Oct 18 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican Wins
39.0%
▲2.3
Democrat 60-65%
38.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 65%+
37.5%
–
Democrat 55-60%
37.5%
–
Democrat 50-55%
37.5%
–
Democrat 45-50%
37.5%
–
Democrat 40-45%
37.5%
–
Democrat 35-40%
37.5%
▼2.0
Democrat 25-35%
37.5%
▼0.5
Democrat 0-25%
8.00%
▼30.0
Probability over time
Republican Wins
Democrat 60-65%
Democrat 65%+
Democrat 55-60%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 45-50%
2026-09-03 ~ 2026-10-18 · y-axis %
