Brazil Presidential Election
Polymarket traders put "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 83.5% on "Brazil Presidential Election". Up 19.4%p from yesterday. $6.2M traded in the last 24 hours. There are 19 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 5.
Most likely right now
Flávio Bolsonaro
▲19.484%
PoliticsVol $6.2MTotal volume $170.1MLiquidity $29.4MComments 22,018Closed (Oct 5)
Current probability
Oct 5 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Flávio Bolsonaro
83.5%
▲19.4
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
15.5%
▼20.0
Geraldo Alckmin
0.15%
–
Tarcisio de Freitas
0.05%
–
Jair Bolsonaro
0.05%
–
Fernando Haddad
0.05%
–
Michelle Bolsonaro
0.05%
–
Eduardo Bolsonaro
0.05%
–
Ratinho Júnior
0.05%
–
Renan Santos
0.05%
–
Ronaldo Caiado
0.05%
–
Romeu Zema
0.05%
–
Camilo Santana
0.05%
–
Eduardo Leite
0.05%
–
Aldo Rebelo
0.05%
–
Tereza Cristina
0.05%
–
Helder Barbalho
0.05%
–
Pablo Marçal
0.05%
–
Augusto Cury
0.05%
–
Probability over time
Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Geraldo Alckmin
Tarcisio de Freitas
Jair Bolsonaro
Fernando Haddad
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-05 · y-axis %
