Brazil Presidential Election

Most likely right now
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
63%
PoliticsVol $490KTotal volume $132.4MLiquidity $13.1MComments 16,617in 1 months (Oct 4)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
62.5%
Flávio Bolsonaro
35.1%
2.3
Renan Santos
2.95%
1.2
Ronaldo Caiado
0.70%
Romeu Zema
0.30%
Jair Bolsonaro
0.25%
Michelle Bolsonaro
0.15%
Pablo Marçal
0.15%
Tarcisio de Freitas
0.05%
Fernando Haddad
0.05%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
0.05%
Ratinho Júnior
0.05%
Camilo Santana
0.05%
Geraldo Alckmin
0.05%
Eduardo Leite
0.05%
Aldo Rebelo
0.05%
Tereza Cristina
0.05%
Helder Barbalho
0.05%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.