US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket traders put "October 31" at 99.3% on "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?". Up 0.9%p from yesterday. $739K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
October 31
▲0.999%
PoliticsVol $739KTotal volume $32.6MLiquidity $596Kin 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Nov 2 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 31
99.3%
▲0.9
November 2
97.2%
▲3.7
November 4
91.5%
▲7.0
November 8
72.5%
–
November 15
51.5%
▲2.0
November 22
42.0%
▲2.5
November 30
34.5%
▼3.0
December 31
25.5%
▼1.0
Probability over time
October 31
November 2
November 4
November 8
November 15
November 22
2026-09-18 ~ 2026-11-02 · y-axis %
