Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Polymarket traders put "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 47.0% on "Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?". Up 33.5%p from yesterday. $3.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 31.

Most likely right now
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
33.547%
PoliticsVol $3.2KTotal volume $3.4KLiquidity $33Kin 1 months (Oct 31)
Current probability

Sep 24 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
47.0%
33.5
Jon Ossoff
32.0%
19.0
Gavin Newsom
13.5%
0.5
Josh Shapiro
4.10%
9.4
Kamala Harris
2.25%
10.8

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.