How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
Polymarket traders put "5.29%" at 86.0% on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $3.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
5.29%
▼1.086%
EconomyVol $3.2KTotal volume $3.2KLiquidity $2.6Kin 29 days (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 3 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
5.29%
86.0%
▼1.0
5.32%
70.5%
▼4.0
5.35%
67.5%
▲4.5
5.38%
59.0%
▲2.0
5.41%
52.5%
▼2.0
5.45%
37.0%
▼14.0
5.50%
33.5%
▼8.0
5.55%
24.5%
▼7.0
5.60%
19.5%
▼6.5
Probability over time
5.29%
5.32%
5.35%
5.38%
5.41%
5.45%
2026-10-02 ~ 2026-10-03 · y-axis %
