How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?
Polymarket traders put "4.86%" at 73.5% on "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Up 23.5%p from yesterday. $2.4K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
4.86%
▲23.574%
EconomyVol $2.4KTotal volume $2.4KLiquidity $3.6Kin 29 days (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 3 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
4.86%
73.5%
▲23.5
4.89%
70.0%
▲20.0
4.92%
52.5%
▲2.5
4.95%
47.0%
▼3.0
5.00%
38.5%
▼11.5
5.05%
34.5%
▼15.5
5.10%
28.5%
▼21.5
5.15%
24.0%
▼26.0
5.25%
23.0%
▼27.0
Probability over time
4.86%
4.89%
4.92%
4.95%
5.00%
5.05%
2026-10-02 ~ 2026-10-03 · y-axis %
