How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Polymarket traders put "Below 5.15%" at 60.0% on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?". Down 13.5%p from yesterday. $2.9K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
Below 5.15%
▼13.560%
EconomyVol $2.9KTotal volume $2.9KLiquidity $1.5Kin 29 days (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 3 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 5.15%
60.0%
▼13.5
Below 5.12%
48.5%
▲22.0
Below 5.09%
47.5%
▲21.5
Below 5.05%
42.5%
▲16.0
Below 5.18%
40.5%
▼38.0
Below 4.85%
30.9%
▲20.0
Below 4.90%
26.5%
▲15.5
Below 5.00%
24.5%
▼2.0
Below 4.95%
22.0%
▲10.5
Probability over time
Below 5.15%
Below 5.12%
Below 5.09%
Below 5.05%
Below 5.18%
Below 4.85%
2026-10-02 ~ 2026-10-03 · y-axis %
