How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.73%" at 71.5% on "How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?". Up 21.5%p from yesterday. $2.7K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
Below 4.73%
▲21.572%
EconomyVol $2.7KTotal volume $2.7KLiquidity $2.6Kin 29 days (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 3 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.73%
71.5%
▲21.5
Below 4.70%
63.5%
▲13.5
Below 4.67%
50.5%
▲0.5
Below 4.64%
39.5%
▼10.5
Below 4.60%
32.0%
▼18.0
Below 4.55%
27.5%
▼22.5
Below 4.50%
27.0%
▼23.0
Below 4.45%
22.0%
▼28.0
Below 4.40%
20.5%
▼29.5
Probability over time
Below 4.73%
Below 4.70%
Below 4.67%
Below 4.64%
Below 4.60%
Below 4.55%
2026-10-02 ~ 2026-10-03 · y-axis %
