How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.59%" at 63.0% on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?". Up 17.5%p from yesterday. $753 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.
Most likely right now
Below 4.59%
▲17.563%
EconomyVol $753Total volume $753Liquidity $914in 26 days (Dec 1)
Current probability
Nov 5 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.59%
63.0%
▲17.5
Below 4.56%
55.5%
▲13.5
Below 4.53%
49.0%
▲8.5
Below 4.47%
45.5%
▲12.5
Below 4.50%
44.0%
▲8.5
Below 4.44%
39.0%
▲7.5
Below 4.41%
34.0%
▲4.5
Below 4.37%
30.0%
▲4.5
Below 4.33%
26.5%
▲5.5
Probability over time
Below 4.59%
Below 4.56%
Below 4.53%
Below 4.47%
Below 4.50%
Below 4.44%
2026-11-04 ~ 2026-11-05 · y-axis %
