How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.92%" at 64.0% on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?". Up 14.0%p from yesterday. $3.4K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
Below 4.92%
▲14.064%
EconomyVol $3.4KTotal volume $3.4KLiquidity $2.3Kin 29 days (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 3 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.92%
64.0%
▲14.0
Below 4.95%
61.5%
▲11.5
Below 4.83%
58.0%
▲8.0
Below 4.86%
56.5%
▲6.5
Below 4.89%
55.5%
▲5.5
Below 4.80%
39.5%
▼10.5
Below 4.75%
32.0%
▼18.0
Below 4.70%
18.5%
▼31.5
Below 4.65%
14.0%
▼36.0
Probability over time
Below 4.92%
Below 4.95%
Below 4.83%
Below 4.86%
Below 4.89%
Below 4.80%
2026-10-02 ~ 2026-10-03 · y-axis %
