How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?

Polymarket traders put "Below 4.52%" at 63.0% on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?". Up 1.5%p from yesterday. $485 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
Below 4.52%
1.563%
EconomyVol $485Total volume $485Liquidity $229in 25 days (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 5 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Below 4.52%
63.0%
1.5
Below 4.49%
61.5%
Below 4.40%
50.5%
0.5
Below 4.43%
50.0%
0.5
Below 4.27%
49.5%
0.5
Below 4.32%
49.5%
Below 4.37%
49.5%
0.5
Below 4.46%
49.5%
0.5
Below 4.20%
37.5%
1.5

Probability over time

Below 4.52%
Below 4.49%
Below 4.40%
Below 4.43%
Below 4.27%
Below 4.32%
02550751009/49/5
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-05 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.