How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "5-6" at 51.0% on "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?". Down 2.5%p from yesterday. $157 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
5-6
▼2.551%
TechVol $157Total volume $521KLiquidity $12Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
5-6
51.0%
▼2.5
<5
48.5%
▲2.0
7-8
1.20%
–
9-10
0.50%
–
>16
0.40%
–
11-12
0.15%
–
13-14
0.05%
–
15-16
0.05%
–
Probability over time
5-6
<5
7-8
9-10
>16
11-12
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
