How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?

Polymarket traders put "475k to 500k" at 60.0% on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?". Up 35.5%p from yesterday. $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
475k to 500k
▲35.560%
EconomyVol $1.6KTotal volume $1.6KLiquidity $6.1Kin 3 days (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 27 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
475k to 500k
60.0%
▲35.5
<375k
25.5%
▲1.0
375k to 400k
24.5%
–
450k to 475k
16.0%
▼8.5
400k to 425k
12.0%
–
500k to 525k
8.50%
▼2.5
425k to 450k
7.50%
▼5.5
525k to 550k
6.50%
▼18.5
550k+
6.50%
▼18.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.