How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
Polymarket traders put "475k to 500k" at 21.5% on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?". Down 9.0%p from yesterday. $2.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Mar 1.
Most likely right now
475k to 500k
▼9.022%
EconomyVol $2.2KTotal volume $2.4KLiquidity $6.6Kin 4 months (Mar 1)
Current probability
Oct 22 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
475k to 500k
21.5%
▼9.0
400k to 425k
19.0%
▲12.5
500k to 525k
16.0%
▼1.5
450k to 475k
15.0%
▼13.5
575k+
13.0%
▼34.0
425k to 450k
12.0%
▼2.5
525k to 550k
11.3%
▲4.8
<400k
10.5%
▼15.0
550k to 575k
5.30%
▼20.7
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
