Next Claude Sonnet released on...?
Polymarket traders put "October 4" at 25.0% on "Next Claude Sonnet released on...?". $1.5K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 23 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 16.
Most likely right now
October 4
–25%
TechVol $1.5KTotal volume $1.5KLiquidity $7.8Kin 21 days (Oct 16)
Current probability
Sep 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 4
25.0%
–
October 15
24.5%
–
October 2
20.5%
–
October 13
19.5%
–
September 30
19.0%
–
October 3
19.0%
–
October 6
19.0%
–
October 1
16.0%
–
September 29
14.0%
–
No release by October 15
13.0%
–
September 28
12.5%
–
October 7
12.5%
–
October 12
12.5%
–
October 14
12.5%
–
September 26
12.1%
–
October 5
11.5%
–
October 8
11.5%
–
October 10
11.0%
–
October 9
9.00%
–
October 11
6.50%
–
On or prior to September 24
3.50%
–
September 25
3.00%
–
September 27
2.80%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
