OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31, 2029" at 19.5% on "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?". Down 30.0%p from yesterday. $39K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31, 2029
30.020%
EconomyVol $39KTotal volume $39KLiquidity $632KComments 3in 3.3 years (Jan 1)
Current probability

Sep 19 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31, 2029
19.5%
30.0
December 31, 2028
15.5%
34.0
December 31, 2027
7.50%
1.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.