OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
Polymarket traders put "December 31, 2026" at 12.0% on "OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?". $540 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–12%
TechVol $540Total volume $540Liquidity $793in 1.3 years (Jan 1)
Current probability
Sep 20 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
12.0%
–
October 31, 2026
9.50%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
