Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?

Most likely right now
August 22
3.996%
PoliticsVol $478Total volume $5.4KLiquidity $2.2Kin 7 days (Aug 31)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
August 22
96.4%
3.9
August 31
94.0%
0.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.