Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket traders put "Marine Le Pen" at 40.8% on "Next French Presidential Election". Unchanged from yesterday. $583K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 42 possible outcomes. It resolves on Apr 19.
Most likely right now
Marine Le Pen
–41%
PoliticsVol $583KTotal volume $148.1MLiquidity $17.1MComments 878in 6 months (Apr 19)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Marine Le Pen
40.8%
–
Édouard Philippe
22.5%
▲1.0
David Lisnard
12.8%
–
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12.5%
–
François Hollande
2.45%
–
Gabriel Attal
1.85%
–
Bruno Retailleau
1.05%
–
Raphaël Glucksmann
1.05%
▼0.5
Sarah Knafo
0.85%
–
Dominique de Villepin
0.65%
–
Christine Lagarde
0.65%
–
Jordan Bardella
0.55%
–
Éric Zemmour
0.55%
–
Sébastien Lecornu
0.25%
–
François Ruffin
0.15%
–
Marine Tondelier
0.15%
–
Olivier Faure
0.15%
–
Ségolène Royal
0.15%
–
Karim Bouamrane
0.15%
–
Jean Castex
0.10%
–
Xavier Bertrand
0.05%
–
Laurent Wauquiez
0.05%
–
Fabien Roussel
0.05%
–
François Asselineau
0.05%
–
Clémentine Autain
0.05%
–
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
0.05%
–
Michel Barnier
0.05%
–
Valérie Pécresse
0.05%
–
François Bayrou
0.05%
–
Élisabeth Borne
0.05%
–
Probability over time
Marine Le Pen
Édouard Philippe
David Lisnard
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
François Hollande
Gabriel Attal
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
