Next French Presidential Election

Most likely right now
Marine Le Pen
0.932%
PoliticsVol $626KTotal volume $121.7MLiquidity $16.1MComments 693in 8 months (Apr 30)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Marine Le Pen
32.4%
0.9
Édouard Philippe
24.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
14.5%
1.0
Gabriel Attal
4.05%
0.6
François Hollande
3.15%
David Lisnard
2.85%
Jordan Bardella
2.65%
Raphaël Glucksmann
1.95%
0.5
Bruno Retailleau
1.75%
Dominique de Villepin
1.75%
Sarah Knafo
1.55%
Sébastien Lecornu
1.35%
Éric Zemmour
0.75%
Michel Barnier
0.25%
Bernard Cazeneuve
0.25%
Xavier Bertrand
0.15%
Laurent Wauquiez
0.15%
François Ruffin
0.15%
Marine Tondelier
0.15%
Fabien Roussel
0.15%
Olivier Faure
0.15%
Ségolène Royal
0.15%
François Asselineau
0.15%
Clémentine Autain
0.15%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
0.15%
Valérie Pécresse
0.15%
François Bayrou
0.15%
Élisabeth Borne
0.15%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
0.15%
Jean Castex
0.15%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.