US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 75.8% on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?". Up 2.9%p from yesterday. $1.1M traded in the last 24 hours. There are 7 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
2.976%
PoliticsVol $1.1MTotal volume $20.4MLiquidity $651KComments 431in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
75.8%
2.9
October 31
60.0%
7.5
September 30
40.5%
5.0
September 21
27.0%
3.5
September 14
22.5%
6.0
September 7
19.5%
8.5
August 31
6.40%
2.9

Probability over time

December 31
October 31
September 30
September 21
September 14
September 7
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.