US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Most likely right now
August 22
100%
PoliticsVol $474KTotal volume $2.8MLiquidity $592KComments 58in 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
August 22
100.0%
August 25
99.3%
0.7
August 31
92.5%
2.0
September 15
81.5%
1.0
September 30
73.5%
2.0
October 31
65.5%
1.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.