What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?

Polymarket traders put "↓ $8" at 34.0% on "What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?". Up 3.0%p from yesterday. $39 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
↓ $8
▲3.034%
TechVol $39Total volume $8.8KLiquidity $938in 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Nov 11 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
↓ $8
34.0%
▲3.0
↑ $20
3.65%
–
↓ $5
2.60%
–
↑ $15
1.55%
▼0.9

Probability over time

↓ $8
↑ $20
↓ $5
↑ $15
02550751009/2510/310/1110/1910/2711/411/11
2026-09-25 ~ 2026-11-11 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.