When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?

Most likely right now
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
88%
OtherVol $549Total volume $6.9KLiquidity $14Kin 7 days (Sep 1)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
88.0%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
10.5%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
1.65%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.