Iran full airspace closure by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 26.5% on "Iran full airspace closure by...?". Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $10K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
0.527%
OtherVol $10KTotal volume $8.6MLiquidity $96KComments 1,144in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
26.5%
0.5
September 30
9.50%
1.0
August 31
2.90%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.