As of Aug 25
Polymarket Prediction Market Dashboard
Probabilities set by people betting real money. We collect every open Polymarket market each morning.
Events
9,069
Markets
51,206
Today's records
27,602
Search 20,000+ markets — fed, bitcoin, election, earthquake…
Most likely right now
65%
No change
No change▼3.065%
25 bps increase▲2.034%
25 bps decrease–1.20%
50+ bps increase–0.35%
50+ bps decrease–0.25%
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
How to read these numbers
- Probability — the market’s odds that it happens. Closer to 100% means the market expects it.
- pp — how far the probability moved since yesterday. 60%→75% is +15pp.
- Volume — money traded in 24 hours. Bigger means more people with real money behind it.
What the market changed its mind about
How much the odds on the same question moved between yesterday and today. Only markets with real trading — a moving quote with no volume is not news.
Grew more likelyyesterday → today
0%50%100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↳ ↑ 80,000
+39.0%p
yst 61%
now 100%
"The Odyssey" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
↳ 570m+
+33.7%p
yst 8%
now 42%
Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
↳ Japan
+29.8%p
yst 48%
now 78%
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↳ ↑ 2,500
+27.5%p
yst 73%
now 100%
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
↳ ↑ $4,700
+27.4%p
yst 57%
now 84%
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
↳ 70-80M
+23.0%p
yst 51%
now 74%
＋ Show the rest (24)− Collapse
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
↳ 12-15
+20.9%p
yst 22%
now 43%
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
↳ David Morales
+19.0%p
yst 34%
now 53%
What price will Solana hit in August?
↳ ↑ 100
+18.0%p
yst 67%
now 85%
STRC hits $100 by…
↳ September 30
+17.0%p
yst 37%
now 54%
Anthropic IPO by __?
↳ October 15, 2026
+16.0%p
yst 47%
now 63%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
↳ August 31
+15.5%p
yst 13%
now 28%
Solana above ___ on August 27?
↳ 90
+13.5%p
yst 77%
now 91%
Solana above ___ on August 27?
↳ 100
+12.5%p
yst 26%
now 39%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↳ ↑ 80,000
+11.9%p
yst 88%
now 100%
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
↳ Nicolás Maduro
+11.9%p
yst 6%
now 18%
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
↳ 800 - 900m
+10.5%p
yst 68%
now 78%
Bitcoin above ___ on August 28?
↳ 74,000
+10.5%p
yst 82%
now 93%
STRC hits $100 by…
↳ December 31
+9.0%p
yst 67%
now 76%
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
↳ <900m
+7.5%p
yst 70%
now 78%
Next Claude Opus released by...?
↳ August 31
+7.5%p
yst 3%
now 11%
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
↳ OpenAI
+7.0%p
yst 77%
now 85%
In which month will Anthropic IPO?
↳ October 2026
+7.0%p
yst 69%
now 76%
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
↳ China
+7.0%p
yst 43%
now 50%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
↳ October 31
+7.0%p
yst 74%
now 82%
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↳ ↑ 82,500
+6.8%p
yst 38%
now 45%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↳ ↑ 120,000
+6.0%p
yst 9%
now 14%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
↳ 1.5T+
+5.8%p
yst 42%
now 48%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↳ ↑ 90,000
+5.5%p
yst 49%
now 55%
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
↳ Scott Jennings
+5.0%p
yst 30%
now 35%
Grew less likelyyesterday → today
0%50%100%
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
↳ August 23
−68.3%p
yst 76%
now 7%
"The Odyssey" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
↳ 550 - 570m
−34.0%p
yst 92%
now 58%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
↳ ↑ $90
−23.0%p
yst 57%
now 34%
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↳ ↓ 75,000
−22.0%p
yst 60%
now 38%
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
↳ 60-70M
−17.5%p
yst 38%
now 21%
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↳ ↓ 72,500
−16.0%p
yst 32%
now 16%
＋ Show the rest (24)− Collapse
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↳ ↓ 2,300
−10.5%p
yst 47%
now 37%
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
↳ 900m+
−10.4%p
yst 32%
now 21%
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
↳ 900 - 920m
−9.0%p
yst 31%
now 22%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
↳ ↑ $95
−9.0%p
yst 21%
now 12%
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
↳ No release by November 1
−7.0%p
yst 52%
now 45%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
↳ September 14
−7.0%p
yst 20%
now 13%
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↳ ↓ 70,000
−7.0%p
yst 15%
now 8%
AI data center in space by...?
↳ December 31, 2027
−6.5%p
yst 25%
now 18%
Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
↳ <$7.5B
−6.5%p
yst 15%
now 8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
↳ September 7
−6.0%p
yst 13%
now 7%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
↳ Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
−5.0%p
yst 24%
now 19%
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
↳ December 31
−5.0%p
yst 9%
now 4%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
↳ US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
−4.6%p
yst 90%
now 86%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
↳ September 21
−4.5%p
yst 26%
now 21%
Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?
↳ 200-219
−4.5%p
yst 20%
now 15%
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↳ ↑ 2,800
−4.5%p
yst 22%
now 18%
Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?
↳ 160-179
−4.2%p
yst 6%
now 2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
↳ September 30
−4.0%p
yst 32%
now 28%
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↳ ↓ 2,100
−4.0%p
yst 12%
now 8%
Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?
↳ 180-199
−4.0%p
yst 13%
now 9%
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↳ ↑ 2,900
−3.8%p
yst 13%
now 10%
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↳ ↑ 3,000
−3.5%p
yst 10%
now 6%
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
↳ September 30, 2026
−3.5%p
yst 25%
now 22%
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
↳ Gadi Eizenkot
−3.5%p
yst 58%
now 55%
Where money and attention went
Left: where the most money moved in 24 hours. Right: what people talked about most.
Top 24h volume
1Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?19%Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?2What price will Bitcoin hit in August?78%↑ 80,0003US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?70%December 314Next French Presidential Election32%Marine Le Pen5Republican Presidential Nominee 202849%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.6Brazil Presidential Election63%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva7What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?71%↑ 85,000
Most discussed
1Brazil Presidential Election63%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva2Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?3.85%December 313Iran full airspace closure by...?27%December 314Iran leadership change by...?25%June 30, 20275Epstein client list released by...?19%October 316Presidential Election Winner 202823%JD Vance7Israel closes its airspace by...?7.50%September 30
By category
Bars show 24-hour volume; the number on the right is open events.
Browse all markets
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What is Polymarket?
What is Polymarket? It is the largest prediction market in the world. People stake real money on whether something will happen, and the trading price is the probability the market has settled on — a contract trading at 65 cents means the market gives that outcome a 65% chance. The Polymarket site (polymarket.com) opened in 2020.
This page is a free Polymarket odds tracker: every open market, collected once each morning, laid out in English, Korean and Japanese — what moved, by how much, and where the money went. Election odds, Fed rate odds and crypto markets all sit on one screen. Built and published free by VibeTimes.
Polymarket itself carries restrictions — access and trading are blocked in a number of countries, including South Korea. This page brokers nothing and encourages no betting; it is a readable view of public market data.