Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?
Most likely right now
Nick Stewart
–4%
PoliticsVol $173Total volume $96KLiquidity $179Kin 7 days (Aug 31)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Nick Stewart
3.85%
–
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
2.40%
–
Rafael Grossi
2.30%
▲0.5
Masoud Pezeshkian
2.25%
▲1.5
Abbas Araghchi
2.20%
–
Jared Kushner
2.05%
–
J.D. Vance
1.70%
–
Kazem Gharibabadi
1.65%
–
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
1.65%
–
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
1.60%
–
Steve Witkoff
1.50%
–
Ishaq Dar
1.45%
–
Marco Rubio
1.35%
–
Pete Hegseth
1.30%
–
Donald Trump
1.15%
–
Mojtaba Khamenei
1.00%
▼1.1
Ahmad Vahidi
0.70%
–
Esmail Qaani
0.70%
–
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
0.25%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
