Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Most likely right now
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
PoliticsVol $534Total volume $2.0MLiquidity $104Kin 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.85%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.