Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Most likely right now
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
–1%
PoliticsVol $534Total volume $2.0MLiquidity $104Kin 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.85%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
