Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

Polymarket traders put "September 29" at 29.5% on "Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?". Up 4.5%p from yesterday. $9.9K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
September 29
4.530%
PoliticsVol $9.9KTotal volume $9.9KLiquidity $34Kin 7 days (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 24 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
September 29
29.5%
4.5
September 28
26.5%
1.5
September 26
22.5%
2.5
September 25
19.5%
6.5
September 27
18.5%
5.5
September 30
17.5%
7.5
September 24
15.5%
9.5
September 23
1.70%
48.3

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.