ポリマーケット 政治 の確率

政治分野で公開中のポリマーケット市場2,403件です。取引額の大きい順に並べています。

1801
Tennessee Senate Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican97%
Democrat3.40%
1802
Virginia Senate Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat0.595%
Republican4.50%
1803
West Virginia Senate Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican96%
Democrat2.25%
1804
Oklahoma Senate Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican96%
Democrat3.60%
1805
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
政治出来高 -1.3年後
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?1.077%
1806
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?
政治出来高 -コメント 11.3年後
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?1.581%
1807
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 214か月後
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?19%
1808
Pará Governor Election Winner
政治出来高 -1か月後
Hana Ghassan0.556%
Dr. Daniel Santos0.542%
他2件
1809
Goiás Governor Election Winner
政治出来高 -コメント 11か月後
Daniel Vilela97%
Marconi Perillo1.50%
他2件
1810
Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?
政治出来高 -
Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? 8.50%
1811
Government shutdown by October 1?
政治出来高 -1か月後
Government shutdown by October 1?9.50%
1812
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
政治出来高 -コメント 22.1年後
Candidate D50%
Candidate C50%
他2件
1813
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
政治出来高 -1.4年後
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?6.50%
1814
Louisiana Senate Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican93%
Democrat6.50%
1815
Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?26.042%
1816
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 14か月後
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?7.50%
1817
García out as Governor of Nuevo León by…?
政治出来高 -4か月後
2026年12月31日7.00%
1818
UK social media ban in effect by…?
政治出来高 -10か月後
2027年6月30日47%
2026年12月31日11%
1819
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?
政治出来高 -2か月後
10月31日2.040%
8月31日12%
1820
Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?11.072%
1821
Will Pauline Hanson wear a burqa again in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Pauline Hanson wear a burqa again in 2026?2.020%
1822
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?6.80%
1823
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026?2.533%
1824
2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Robert Luna86%
Alex Villanueva9.50%
1825
2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Mo Ivory96%
Eric J. Tatum1.25%
1826
2026 Williamson County Judge Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Steven Snell66%
Heather Jefts33%
1827
2026 Montgomery County Judge Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Mark Keough94%
James Graf3.15%
1828
2026 Denton County Judge Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Andy Eads91%
Nick Pappas8.00%
1829
2026 Collin County Judge Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Chris Hill89%
John R. "Buster" Brown0.55.50%
1830
2026 Bexar County Judge Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Ron Nirenberg94%
Patrick Von Dohlen4.80%
1831
2026 Harris County Judge Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Letitia Plummer0.696%
Orlando Sanchez0.90%
1832
2026 Louisville Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Craig Greenberg92%
Shameka Parrish-Wright7.50%
1833
2026 Lexington Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Linda Gorton89%
Person A44%
他1件
1834
2026 Reno Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Kate Marshall90%
Kathleen Taylor7.80%
1835
2026 North Las Vegas Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Daniele Monroe-Moreno76%
Scott Black25%
1836
2026 Henderson Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -2か月後
Michelle Romero92%
Hollie Chadwick1.35.85%
1837
Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日46%
9月30日9.50%
1838
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 1
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?1.512%
1839
Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?
政治出来高 -1か月後
Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?0.567%
1840
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?
政治出来高 -コメント 714か月後
2026年12月31日4.85%
1841
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by December 31?
政治出来高 -コメント 34か月後
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by December 31?4.535%
1842
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?12%
1843
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
政治出来高 -1.4年後
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?4.016%
1844
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
政治出来高 -1か月後
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?1.07.00%
1845
Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner
政治出来高 -コメント 18か月後
Vladan Đokić0.522%
Ana Brnabić1.016%
他2件
1846
US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
US announces military base in Israel in 2026?16%
1847
Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Tom Kean Jr.out as US Rep before term ends?1.036%
1848
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?
政治出来高 -10か月後
2027年6月30日52%
2026年9月30日6.00%
他1件
1849
California Tax Spend Audit Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Tax Spend Audit Proposition1.057%
1850
California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition49%
1851
California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition1.073%
1852
California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition1.039%
1853
California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition1.562%
1854
California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition8.062%
1855
California Rainy Day Fund Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Rainy Day Fund Proposition2.071%
1856
California Expedited Environmental Review Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Expedited Environmental Review Proposition71%
1857
California Public Campaign Financing Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Public Campaign Financing Proposition41%
1858
California Recall Election Reform Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Recall Election Reform Proposition45%
1859
California Clinic Funding Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Clinic Funding Proposition1.532%
1860
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition
政治出来高 -2か月後
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition2.043%
1861
California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
政治出来高 -2か月後
California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?1.542%
1862
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?3.30%
1863
Next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
No HR in 202677%
Peter Sørensen0.58.50%
他2件
1864
Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 14か月後
Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?9.00%
1865
Will Trump pardon anyone by...?
政治出来高 -2か月後
10月31日2.073%
9月30日21.545%
他1件
1866
Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?
政治出来高 -2か月後
10月31日3.35%
1867
Berlin State Election: 3rd Place
政治出来高 -26日後
AfD0.534%
Grüne29%
他2件
1868
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
政治出来高 -コメント 74か月後
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?13%
1869
Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?4.567%
1870
Next President of the National Rally in 2026?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Jordan Bardella95%
David Rachline0.70%
他2件
1871
Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026?1.09.00%
1872
Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?
政治出来高 -コメント 68か月後
April 17, 20271.314%
2026年12月31日5.50%
1873
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?
政治出来高 -8か月後
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?18%
1874
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?
政治出来高 -7か月後
March 319.50%
12月31日3.65%
1875
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner
政治出来高 -1か月後
Raquel Lyra1.565%
João Campos1.535%
他1件
1876
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日16%
9月30日3.90%
1877
CA-12 House Election Winner (Individual)
政治出来高 -2か月後
Lateefah Simon95%
Jamie Joyce5.50%
1878
CA-29 House Election Winner (Individual)
政治出来高 -2か月後
Luz Rivas1.088%
Angélica María Dueñas2.15.90%
1879
CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)
政治出来高 -2か月後
Ken Calvert0.576%
Young Kim0.524%
1880
Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?
政治出来高 -10か月後
June 302.045%
12月31日25%
1881
Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?4.051%
1882
US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?
政治出来高 -コメント 14か月後
12月31日0.543%
10月31日9.024%
1883
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
政治出来高 -3か月後
War Material amendment65%
VAT federal decree53%
他2件
1884
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?
政治出来高 -4か月後
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?1.00%
1885
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?14%
1886
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?13%
1887
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 14か月後
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?4.50%
1888
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 24か月後
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?0.515%
1889
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?8.50%
1890
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?
政治出来高 -コメント 101か月後
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?2.70%
1891
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
政治出来高 -コメント 1694か月後
12月31日4.95%
1892
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
政治出来高 -コメント 24か月後
12月31日9.50%
10月31日3.75%
他1件
1893
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日35%
9月30日1.09.50%
他1件
1894
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
政治出来高 -コメント 27日後
8月31日0.50%
1895
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
政治出来高 -7日後
8月31日0.60%
1896
Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Between Nov. 3 and Jan. 3 12PM47%
Before the Midterms1.07.50%
1897
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日7.50%
1898
Colorado passes ballot measure banning underage transgender surgeries?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Colorado passes ballot measure banning underage transgender surgeries?50%
1899
Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?
政治出来高 -コメント 12か月後
Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?1.587%
1900
South Ossetia Presidential Election Winner
政治出来高 -24日後
Marat Kambolov98%
Alan Gagloev0.85%
他2件
1901
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
1-1000.978%
1k-2.5k4.25%
他2件
1902
Will Elon register any party before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Elon register any party before 2027?0.56.90%
1903
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?13%
1904
Obama divorce before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Obama divorce before 2027?2.60%
1905
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? 5.40%
1906
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?9.50%
1907
Obama federally charged before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Obama federally charged before 2027?0.67.90%
1908
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日0.57.00%
1909
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?3.15%
1910
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?0.84.25%
1911
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?3.95%
1912
Obama arrested before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Obama arrested before 2027?3.30%
1913
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?0.616%
1914
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?8.50%
1915
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日1.026%
1916
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?1.69.30%
1917
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?9.00%
1918
Seltzers with 5mg THC legal on…?
政治出来高 -7か月後
November 13, 20262.047%
March 13, 20273.528%
1919
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?
政治出来高 -コメント 54か月後
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?3.021%
1920
Will Trump resign before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Trump resign before 2027?3.35%
1921
Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day?0.94.20%
1922
Mordovia Gubernatorial Election Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
Artyom Zdunov99%
Alexander Alexandrov0.50.35%
他2件
1923
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?3.027%
1924
Next UK by-election called by…?
政治出来高 -4か月後
12月31日2.561%
9月30日1.519%
1925
Tuva Gubernatorial Election Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
Vladislav Khovalyg97%
Yegor Chistyakov1.40%
他2件
1926
Ulyanovsk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
Alexey Russkikh96%
Sergey Marinin0.92.05%
他2件
1927
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 3rd Place
政治出来高 -12日後
The Left97%
SPD1.65%
他2件
1928
Bryansk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
Yegor Kovalchuk96%
Alexandra Kazachkova2.65%
他2件
1929
Tver Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
Vitaly Korolev97%
Tatyana Petrova1.31.55%
他2件
1930
Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -19日後
Thorsten Kornblum88%
Michael Walther7.95%
他2件
1931
Belgorod Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
Alexander Shuvaev0.995%
Artyom Zotov1.90%
他2件
1932
Hannover Mayoral Election Winner
政治出来高 -19日後
Belit Onay60%
Axel von der Ohe1.031%
他2件
1933
Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner
政治出来高 -19日後
Eva Bender2.086%
Oliver Junk1.014%
他2件
1934
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
政治出来高 -6日後
8月31日7.50%
1935
MA-09 Democratic Primary Winner
政治出来高 -6日後
Bill Keating98%
Craig Swallow0.52.40%
1936
Oakland Mayoral Election
政治出来高 -2か月後
Barbara Lee89%
Brenda Grisham0.58.00%
1937
Adygea Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia1.898%
Communists of Russia0.50%
他2件
1938
Chechnya Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -コメント 126日後
United Russia98%
CPRF0.72.20%
他2件
1939
Chuvashia Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
A Just Russia1.41.55%
他2件
1940
Karelia Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
Rodina2.05%
他2件
1941
Mordovia Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia0.795%
New People2.55%
他2件
1942
Altai Krai Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
New People0.52.15%
他2件
1943
Kamchatka Krai Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
A Just Russia1.80%
他2件
1944
Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
LDPR2.35%
他2件
1945
Astrakhan Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
A Just Russia3.00%
他2件
1946
Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia95%
Yabloko2.12.35%
他2件
1947
Kirov Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia93%
A Just Russia0.35%
他2件
1948
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
CPRF0.95%
他2件
1949
Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -コメント 126日後
United Russia96%
A Just Russia3.55%
他2件
1950
Saint Petersburg Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -コメント 126日後
United Russia99%
CPRF0.55%
他2件
1951
Vologda Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia98%
A Just Russia1.35%
他2件
1952
Tyumen Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
A Just Russia0.55%
他2件
1953
Tver Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
A Just Russia1.05%
他2件
1954
Tomsk Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
New People1.45%
他2件
1955
Tambov Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia99%
CPRF0.20%
他2件
1956
Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
Yabloko1.40%
他2件
1957
Samara Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
Communists of Russia1.25%
他2件
1958
Orenburg Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
A Just Russia2.55%
他2件
1959
Novgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia99%
Yabloko1.15%
他2件
1960
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia99%
Rodina0.65%
他2件
1961
Murmansk Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
CPRF2.05%
他2件
1962
Moscow Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
New People1.80%
他2件
1963
Lipetsk Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
A Just Russia0.40%
他2件
1964
Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia96%
A Just Russia1.75%
他2件
1965
Kursk Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
政治出来高 -26日後
United Russia97%
Party of Pensioners1.05%
他2件
1966
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
政治出来高 -コメント 24か月後
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?63%
1967
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
政治出来高 -4か月後
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?78%
1968
John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?
政治出来高 -4か月後
John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?3.028%
1969
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?
政治出来高 -6日後
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?0.35%
1970
North Vancouver—Capilano By-Election Winner
政治出来高 -6日後
Braeden Caley0.598%
Stephen Curran0.61.60%
1971
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?
政治出来高 -コメント 12.2年後
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?28%
1972
Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee?
政治出来高 -2年後
Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee?40%
1973
Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?54%
1974
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?2.549%
1975
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?
政治出来高 -6日後
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?0.05%
1976
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?5.00%
1977
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?10%
1978
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
政治出来高 -4か月後
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?2.45%
1979
Delaware Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 15-20%1.520%
Democrat 25-30%9.519%
他2件
1980
Illinois Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 25-30%2.522%
Democrat 20-25%1.521%
他2件
1981
Kentucky Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 25-30%18%
Republican 20-25%17%
他2件
1982
New Hampshire Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 9-12%19%
Democrat 6-9%6.016%
他2件
1983
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 0-3%19%
Republican 6-9%12.019%
他2件
1984
Oklahoma Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 25-30%21%
Republican 15-20%6.021%
他2件
1985
Oregon Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 20-25%0.522%
Democrat 0-5%2.820%
他2件
1986
Tennessee Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 25-30%2.536%
Republican 20-25%20%
他2件
1987
Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 21%+0.530%
Democrat 15-18%1.021%
他2件
1988
West Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 45-50%11.522%
Republican 40-45%1.016%
他2件
1989
Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)
政治出来高 -1.2年後
Republican81%
Democrat18%
1990
Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?
政治出来高 -2か月後
Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?8.072%
1991
Quintana Roo Governor Election Winner
政治出来高 -10か月後
Eugenio Segura Vázquez41%
Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña38%
他2件
1992
Baja California Governor Election Winner
政治出来高 -10か月後
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz44%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla21%
他2件
1993
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?
政治出来高 -1か月後
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?12%
1994
Oklahoma Governor Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 20-25%19%
Republican 15-20%2.016%
他2件
1995
Pennsylvania Governor Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Democrat 15-20%25%
Democrat 0-5%5.518%
他2件
1996
South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 20-25%26%
Republican 25-30%14%
他2件
1997
Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 6-9%24%
Republican 3-6%0.515%
他2件
1998
Wyoming Governor Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 25-30%16%
Republican 35-40%1.016%
他2件
1999
Michoacán Governor Election Winner
政治出来高 -10か月後
Grecia Quiroz30%
Carlos Torres Piña26%
他2件
2000
AL-01 House Election Margin of Victory
政治出来高 -2か月後
Republican 30-35%0.536%
Republican 25-30%3.028%
他2件
確率はポリマーケットの約定価格で、参加者が実際の資金を賭けて形成した値です。公式な予測ではなく、投資判断の根拠には適しません。毎朝一度の収集のため、日中の変動は反映されません。