US to Lead Extended Deterrence Post-OPCON Transfer to South Korea

Analysis indicates that even after South Korea regains wartime operational control (OPCON), the United States will continue to lead in providing extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threats. This counters arguments suggesting a potential US troop withdrawal, which critics say do not sufficiently consider the essence of OPCON and extended deterrence, nor the institutional agreements within the ROK-US alliance.

US extended deterrence operates within frameworks such as the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of Korea and the United States, and the newly launched Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), regardless of South Korea's OPCON status. This also aligns with US strategy to prevent South Korea from possessing nuclear weapons and to manage nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia.

The ROK-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) serves as a forum for consultation to strengthen the alliance and extended deterrence. It was officially launched with the 'Washington Declaration' in April 2023. The fifth meeting was held in December last year, and the sixth meeting took place in Seoul on the 11th.