Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Hits Post-Inauguration Low of 43.0%... Party Chair Candidates Divided on Causes

A Realmeter survey showed President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating for state affairs falling to 43.0%, marking the lowest level since his inauguration. Against this backdrop, the Presidential Office has invited Kim Min-seok, Jung Cheong-rae, and Song Young-gil—candidates who competed in the party convention—to the Blue House for a dinner on the 19th. According to the Presidential Office, the gathering is intended to solidify cooperation between the party, the government, and the presidential office. Meanwhile, President Lee has instructed relevant ministries and local governments to promptly implement on-site measures to minimize damage, concentrating administrative efforts on disaster response as continuous heavy rainfall hits the south coast, affecting areas like Geoje and Tongyeong.

Approval Rating Drops for 5th Straight Week; Diagnoses Diverge

A Realmeter poll conducted from the 10th to the 14th showed President Lee’s approval rating at 43.0%. This marks a decline for the fifth consecutive week and the lowest figure since taking office. The problem is that diagnoses of the cause vary significantly among the candidates. Candidate Jung Cheong-rae diagnosed the cause as the cooling of sentiment among his core supporters, pledging to recover the approval rating to over 60% if elected party leader. Conversely, Candidate Kim Min-seok viewed the defection of moderates and internal party conflict as the background for the decline. Candidate Song Young-gil strongly criticized Jung’s theory of core supporter attrition as a "quack doctor's prescription," pinpointing real estate policy issues as the primary cause.

Essentially, the three candidates have offered three different prescriptions for the same figure. This goes beyond simple primary race sparring; it represents a fork in the road regarding where the Democratic Party will place its leverage to recover support. If the party chooses to recover moderates, adjusting the pace of reform agendas becomes inevitable. If it chooses to rally the core, it may maintain the base for local elections but face limitations in expanding toward the middle ground.

Response to Heavy Rains: First Test for Rebound

Apart from political schedules, the immediate task is disaster response. On the 17th, as heavy rains pounded the south coast, including Geoje and Tongyeong, President Lee immediately ordered relevant ministries to respond with a focus on the field and established a policy to "concentrate all efforts on minimizing damage." Disaster management is seen as the most direct opportunity for the government to regain public trust in a scenario where approval ratings are at 43%, making it a situation the government cannot afford to mishandle. Past administrations have seen instances where initial failures in disaster response led to a sharp drop in approval ratings. Conversely, swift on-site measures and compensation for damage have often led to a re-evaluation of administrative competence.

Significance of the Dinner and Future Outlook

The weight of the dinner on the 19th is also significant. President Lee inviting all three candidates who ran in the primary is interpreted as a message that he intends to maintain the framework of party-government-presidential office cooperation regardless of who becomes party leader. The move comes as the Presidential Office directly pulls the strings of cooperation, especially as internal party tensions rise with a "pro-Lee vs. pro-Jung" structure emerging ahead of the Supreme Council member elections. Once the new leadership is launched, structural agendas such as President Lee’s proposed four-year midterm or single-term constitutional amendment, and the transfer of presidential powers to the National Assembly, are expected to be formally discussed at the negotiation table. The People Power Party is applying lateral pressure on the new ruling party leadership, stating they must "become a ruling party for the people, not for 'shielding Lee Jae-myung,'" suggesting that inter-party conflict will intensify in tandem with approval rating trends.

In the short term, recovery from heavy rain damage and support for victims are likely to serve as the first test for a rebound in approval ratings. Whether the decline will halt at the 43% level and turn upward, and whether cooperation with the new leadership will lead to tangible state affairs achievements, will be the key points to watch in the coming weeks.