Trumpism Expected to Remain Intact, Weighing Heavily on Seoul

Experts said Friday that with the Democratic Party taking control of both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, the South Korean government now faces a heavier burden of dealing simultaneously with two centers of power: the Trump administration and the Democrat-led Congress. A roundtable on "Changes in U.S. Foreign Policy After the Midterm Elections and Response Measures for Key Issues in Korea-U.S. Relations" was held that day at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Jung-gu, Seoul.

Analysts diagnosed that the core of Trumpism will remain intact. Lee Sang-hyun, an honorary research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said, "Unilateral pressure on allies may ease, but demands for burden-sharing will continue," adding, "The structural framework of Trumpism — America First, economic nationalism, and containment of China — is highly likely to persist." Former Foreign Minister Song Min-soon also said, "President Trump has succeeded in extracting hundreds of billions of dollars in investments while pressuring other countries, so even if the Democrats win the next presidency, it will not be easy for this trajectory to be reversed."

There were also concerns that implementation of investments in the United States could become more difficult if the Trump administration loses strength. Former Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyun-dong said, "Implementation of agreed issues such as investment in the U.S. under the Joint Fact Sheet (JFS) is already not going smoothly, and if the Trump administration weakens and congressional checks intensify, implementation will become even more difficult and protracted." Lee Jae-min, a professor at Seoul National University School of Law, said, "If a Democrat-led Congress takes office, the U.S. investment pledge could be subject to extensive inquiries, investigations, and hearings," adding, "Even if President Trump becomes a lame duck, Washington could still wield pressure tactics if Korea's investments fall behind schedule."

The prevailing assessment was that the prospects for a North Korea-U.S. summit are low. Former Foreign Minister Song Min-soon said, "A negotiating framework conditioned on sanctions relief and a halt to North Korea's nuclear development and testing is possible," but noted, "Issues of transparency or verification could drag negotiations out indefinitely." Former Ambassador Cho said, "Chairman Kim Jong-un could invite President Trump to Pyongyang, but North Korea's goal would essentially be recognition as a nuclear state and sanctions relief."

The analyses presented at the roundtable suggest that managing Korea-U.S. issues — including investment in the United States, the transition of wartime operational control, and security negotiations — may become more difficult as Seoul faces 'two centers of power' in the Trump administration and the Democratic Congress.