0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 35.5% on "0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?". Down 15.0%p from yesterday. $49 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31
▼15.036%
PoliticsVol $49Total volume $49Liquidity $4.0Kin 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Sep 13 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
35.5%
▼15.0
September 30
6.50%
▼43.5
Probability over time
December 31
September 30
2026-09-12 ~ 2026-09-13 · y-axis %
