Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Most likely right now
Democrats Sweep
48%
PoliticsVol $29KTotal volume $10.4MLiquidity $976KComments 262in 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrats Sweep
47.5%
R Senate, D House
38.5%
Republicans Sweep
11.5%
D Senate, R House
1.00%
Other
0.25%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.