2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrats 8-10%" at 29.5% on "2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory". $177 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 13 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrats 8-10%
–30%
PoliticsVol $177Total volume $154KLiquidity $502Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrats 8-10%
29.5%
–
Democrats 10-12%
22.5%
–
Democrats 6-8%
17.5%
–
Democrats 12-14%
9.75%
▼1.4
Democrats 4-6%
8.00%
–
Democrats 2-4%
5.10%
▼0.6
Democrats 16%+
3.65%
–
Democrats 0-2%
3.50%
–
Democrats 14-16%
2.95%
▼1.2
Republicans 2-4%
2.45%
–
Republicans 0-2%
2.30%
–
Republicans 4-6%
2.30%
–
Republicans 6%+
0.95%
–
Probability over time
Democrats 8-10%
Democrats 10-12%
Democrats 6-8%
Democrats 12-14%
Democrats 4-6%
Democrats 2-4%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
