2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrats 8-10%" at 27.5% on "2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory". There are 13 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrats 8-10%
–28%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $125KLiquidity $229Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrats 8-10%
27.5%
–
Democrats 10-12%
23.5%
–
Democrats 6-8%
19.5%
–
Democrats 4-6%
12.5%
–
Democrats 12-14%
5.75%
▼0.8
Democrats 2-4%
5.55%
–
Republicans 0-2%
3.55%
–
Republicans 2-4%
3.25%
–
Democrats 0-2%
1.80%
–
Republicans 6%+
1.20%
–
Democrats 16%+
1.10%
–
Democrats 14-16%
0.65%
–
Republicans 4-6%
0.55%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
