Presidential Election Winner 2028

Most likely right now
JD Vance
23%
PoliticsVol $206KTotal volume $692.3MLiquidity $63.8MComments 1,006in 2.2 years (Nov 7)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
JD Vance
23.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14.1%
Marco Rubio
10.8%
Jon Ossoff
9.75%
Gavin Newsom
8.20%
Kamala Harris
3.15%
0.6
Pete Buttigieg
2.45%
Josh Shapiro
2.45%
Donald Trump
2.35%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1.55%
Mark Kelly
1.45%
Ron DeSantis
1.35%
Tucker Carlson
1.30%
Andy Beshear
1.15%
Wes Moore
0.95%
Ro Khanna
0.95%
Thomas Massie
0.95%
Greg Abbott
0.85%
Donald Trump Jr.
0.75%
Glenn Youngkin
0.65%
Elon Musk
0.65%
Jamie Dimon
0.65%
James Talarico
0.65%
Nikki Haley
0.55%
Michelle Obama
0.55%
Ivanka Trump
0.50%
Gretchen Whitmer
0.45%
JB Pritzker
0.35%
Tulsi Gabbard
0.25%
Raphael Warnock
0.25%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.