Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket traders put "October 9" at 98.6% on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?". Up 0.7%p from yesterday. $260K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
October 9
▲0.799%
PoliticsVol $260KTotal volume $33.2MLiquidity $267KComments 312in 3 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 9
98.6%
▲0.7
October 15
94.5%
–
October 31
81.5%
▼4.0
November 15
71.5%
▼3.0
November 30
62.5%
▼1.0
December 31
56.5%
▼2.5
Probability over time
October 9
October 15
October 31
November 15
November 30
December 31
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
