2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Most likely right now
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
96%
PoliticsVol $12KTotal volume $314KLiquidity $564KComments 71in 8 months (Apr 17)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
96.2%
Nathalie Arthaud
89.0%
3.5
Marine Le Pen
87.0%
0.5
Fabien Roussel
85.5%
7.5
Édouard Philippe
84.5%
Bruno Retailleau
80.5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
69.5%
0.5
Éric Zemmour
57.0%
10.5
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
56.5%
David Lisnard
48.0%
Sarah Knafo
44.0%
4.5
François Ruffin
32.5%
3.5
Dominique de Villepin
31.0%
0.5
Gabriel Attal
28.0%
2.0
François Hollande
27.5%
Marine Tondelier
24.5%
1.5
Juan Branco
16.0%
0.5
François Asselineau
14.5%
3.0
Olivier Faure
14.1%
0.7
Jordan Bardella
12.6%
Xavier Bertrand
12.5%
Bernard Cazeneuve
10.3%
7.6
Jérôme Guedj
10.0%
0.5
Élisabeth Borne
8.40%
6.1
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
8.00%
1.5
Delphine Batho
8.00%
4.9
Carole Delga
7.80%
4.4
Yaël Braun-Pivet
7.75%
3.4
Michel Barnier
7.60%
5.5
Manuel Bompard
7.50%
0.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.