AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?

Polymarket traders put "2" at 79.5% on "AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?". $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.

Most likely right now
2
80%
PoliticsVol $2.0KTotal volume $63KLiquidity $63Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
2
79.5%
3
10.7%
0.5
1
10.2%
0
0.15%

Probability over time

2
3
1
0
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.