AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 55-60%" at 26.5% on "AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 3.5%p from yesterday. $708 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 55-60%
▼3.527%
PoliticsVol $708Total volume $21KLiquidity $108Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 55-60%
26.5%
▼3.5
Republican 60-65%
25.5%
▲1.0
Republican 50-55%
18.9%
▼2.1
Republican 70-75%
10.6%
▲3.4
Republican 45-50%
8.05%
–
Republican 35-45%
7.00%
–
Republican 65-70%
5.30%
▼5.3
Democrat Wins
2.65%
▼0.5
Republican 0-35%
1.65%
–
Republican 75%+
0.40%
–
Probability over time
Republican 55-60%
Republican 60-65%
Republican 50-55%
Republican 70-75%
Republican 45-50%
Republican 35-45%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
