AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 35-45%" at 29.5% on "AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 4.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 35-45%
▼4.530%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $437Liquidity $11Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 35-45%
29.5%
▼4.5
Republican 45-50%
26.5%
▼1.5
Republican 55-60%
15.0%
▲0.5
Republican 50-55%
14.0%
–
Republican 75%+
13.5%
▲5.0
Republican 70-75%
10.5%
–
Republican 65-70%
10.0%
▲2.5
Republican 0-35%
10.0%
–
Republican 60-65%
9.50%
–
Democrat Wins
0.65%
–
Probability over time
Republican 35-45%
Republican 45-50%
Republican 55-60%
Republican 50-55%
Republican 75%+
Republican 70-75%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
