AOC's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?

Polymarket traders put "↓ 10%" at 42.5% on "AOC's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?". Down 7.5%p from yesterday. $2.9K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
↓ 10%
▼7.543%
PoliticsVol $2.9KTotal volume $2.9KLiquidity $47Kin 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Nov 5 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
↓ 10%
42.5%
▼7.5
↑ 20%
26.5%
▼19.5
↑ 25%
7.00%
▲0.5

Probability over time

↓ 10%
↑ 20%
↑ 25%
025507510011/411/5
2026-11-04 ~ 2026-11-05 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.