AR-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 15-20%" at 26.0% on "AR-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 15-20%
▼0.526%
PoliticsVol $1.2KTotal volume $11KLiquidity $94Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 15-20%
26.0%
▼0.5
Republican 20-25%
21.3%
▼1.7
Republican 25-30%
18.5%
▼1.5
Republican 10-15%
18.4%
▲0.6
Republican 35-40%
12.7%
▲3.2
Republican 30-35%
3.40%
▼6.5
Republican 0-10%
3.40%
▼7.3
Democrat Wins
3.30%
▼8.6
Republican 40%+
1.05%
–
Probability over time
Republican 15-20%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 30-35%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
