AR-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 35-40%" at 29.0% on "AR-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 9.5%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 35-40%
▲9.529%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $29Liquidity $2.2Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 35-40%
29.0%
▲9.5
Republican 10-15%
26.5%
▲9.5
Republican 25-30%
26.0%
▲0.5
Republican 20-25%
25.0%
▲11.0
Republican 40%+
24.0%
▲2.0
Republican 15-20%
24.0%
▲2.0
Republican 30-35%
23.0%
▲7.5
Republican 0-10%
23.0%
▲9.5
Democrat Wins
12.0%
▲7.0
Probability over time
Republican 35-40%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 40%+
Republican 15-20%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
