Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 15.5% on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?". $45K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31
–16%
PoliticsVol $45KTotal volume $16.6MLiquidity $531KComments 280in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
15.5%
–
October 31
5.50%
–
Probability over time
December 31
October 31
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
